2012 Academy Awards: And The Oscar Goes To…

Many complain that the Academy Awards, which happen at the end of the annual awards season, is too often a predictable affair. This year, however, has seen the tide change for many of the presumed front-runners since the nominations were announced on Jan. 10.

Then, Lincoln was the Best Picture frontrunner, Jessica Chastain had the Best Actress race sewn up for her buzzy role in the even buzzier Zero Dark Thirty, and esteemed playwright Tony Kushner was surging ahead as a likely winner for his verbose Lincoln screenplay, full of 19th-century rabble-rousing.

Not anymore, it seems.

Yes, a few categories are locked, such as Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress. But many of the categories’ fates seem as unpredictable as knowing which celebrity targets host Seth MacFarlane will roast (lightly) on Sunday evening.

Here are my picks for who will win at the 85th annual Academy Awards, followed by who could spoil the party and who should be victorious.

Best Picture

Who Will Win: Argo

Who Could Win: Lincoln

Who Should Win: Amour

It's a box-office hit and crowd-pleaser, a period piece with links to contemporary political affairs and a movie about the movies (sort of). In addition, Ben Affleck has won so many prizes that Academy voters will be guilty they snubbed him accidentally for the directing category and hand him (as well as George Clooney and Grant Heslov) an Oscar for producing. However, Argo is not the obvious choice: it has five fewer nods than Lincoln, a possible although unlikely spoiler.

Best Director

Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Who Could Win: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Who Should Win: Michael Haneke, Amour

With David O. Russell’s adapted screenplay getting much praise but little potential to win in a crowded category, he could sneak up and upset. But, directors rarely win for comedy. Lee has won twice before, but Life of Pi has no acting nominations, which dampen his chances considerably. Lincoln, meanwhile, boasts impressive performances and assured direction, and this could make it three directing Oscars for industry titan Spielberg, after Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan.

Best Actor

Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Who Could Win: Um… I guess all the people Day-Lewis will thank in his speech are winners, in a metaphorical sort of way.

Who Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

If Daniel Day-Lewis does not pick up an Oscar for his stellar turn as the 16th President of the United States, I will gladly give my left foot. If he falters to pick up this luxurious trophy, I assure you that there will be blood. I mean, in the name of the father, if Day-Lewis does not win… OK, you get the idea.

Best Actress

Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Who Could Win: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Who Should Win: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

On Sunday, the same day that the Academy Awards turns 85, Emmanuelle Riva will turn 86. A golden statue would be quite the birthday present. Although Riva has gotten much amour for her remarkable performance and is a sleeper pick for the award, she did not score a Screen Actors Guild nomination. Since the actors’ guild is often an indicator of who picks up an Academy Award, this should put Lawrence (who has plowed through awards’ season the same way Katniss Everdeen does in The Hunger Games) the victor.

Best Supporting Actor

Who Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Who Could Win: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

Who Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

This is one of the toughest categories to call, since the three actors above (along with Christoph Waltz, whose chances weaken due to the lack of a SAG nomination) have each racked up wins this awards season. All of the nominees have won before, so there is little hope for a sentimental favourite to pull through (a la Adrien Brody, who won Best Actor for The Pianist against four past winners in 2003). That leaves it a two-man race between De Niro, who has not won since 1981, and Jones, who has not won since 1994. Jones won the SAG, which is a good indicator of who will take home the gold on Sunday.

Best Supporting Actress

Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Who Could Win: Sally Field, Lincoln (but it’s a real long shot)

Who Should Win: Amy Adams, The Master

Sure, the Academy likes Sally Field (they really, really like her) and she would be a stronger contender in a different year. But Anne Hathaway’s stellar performance was one of the only high points of a lackluster Les Miserables, and her awards-season sweepstakes will continue here.

The Rest of the Bests:

Best Original Screenplay – Michael Haneke, Amour

Best Adapted Screenplay – Chris Terrio, Argo

Best Animated Feature Film – Wreck-it Ralph (Rich Moore)

Best Animated Short Film – "Paperman" (John Kahrs)

Best Documentary Feature – Searching for Sugar Man (Malik Bendjelloul and Simon Chinn)

Best Documentary Short Subject – "Open Heart" (Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd Stern

Best Foreign-Language Film – Amour (Austria)

Best Live-Action Short Film – "Death of a Shadow" (Tom Van Avermaet and Ellen De Waele)

Best Original Score – Life of Pi (Mychael Danna)

Best Original Song – “Skyfall” from Skyfall (Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth)

Best Cinematography – Life of Pi (Claudio Miranda)

Best Costume Design – Anna Karenina (Jacqueline Durran)

Best Film Editing – Argo (William Goldenberg)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling – Les Miserables (Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell)

Best Production Design – Anna Karenina (Sarah Greenwood (Production Design); Katie Spencer (Set Decoration))

Best Sound Editing – Skyfall (Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers)

Best Sound Mixing – Les Miserables (Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes)

Best Visual Effects – Life of Pi (Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott)